How GP Byes Affect Tiebreakers
The ultimate goal of GP competitors in the Swiss rounds is to make the top 8. In a tournament with at least several hundred players, that is quite an accomplishment. It typically requires going 12-2-1 or better and there's a good chance the last spots come down to tiebreakers, which are determined by averaging the match-win percentage of each opponent a player faces.
Byes are an important part of individual GPs. They are given as a reward to players who have put up good results in the current or previous season, and those in the Hall of Fame. Getting free wins is obviously helpful in getting the kind of record one needs to top 8, but in my opinion there is an underappreciated aspect of byes - they give players a significant advantage in tiebreakers.
As you can see, 12 - 3 is very unlikely to be good enough, 13 - 1 - 1 is a lock and in between you are likely but not certain to make the top 8. Digging into the data a bit deeper, reveals big differences based on the number of byes a player with the record has: You can see that there's a pretty clear difference between having no byes and at least one. Phrasing it in terms of failing to qualify for the top 8, I think it's particularly striking that 42% of the time (18 of 43) a player went 13 - 2 playing every match they failed to top 8. This happened just 10% of the time (18 out of 174) a player with at least a bye 13 - 2.
Byes are an important part of individual GPs. They are given as a reward to players who have put up good results in the current or previous season, and those in the Hall of Fame. Getting free wins is obviously helpful in getting the kind of record one needs to top 8, but in my opinion there is an underappreciated aspect of byes - they give players a significant advantage in tiebreakers.
How likely are you to make it with a given record?
Before getting into that, let's look at often a player made the top 8, based on how many match points they had in the GP.As you can see, 12 - 3 is very unlikely to be good enough, 13 - 1 - 1 is a lock and in between you are likely but not certain to make the top 8. Digging into the data a bit deeper, reveals big differences based on the number of byes a player with the record has: You can see that there's a pretty clear difference between having no byes and at least one. Phrasing it in terms of failing to qualify for the top 8, I think it's particularly striking that 42% of the time (18 of 43) a player went 13 - 2 playing every match they failed to top 8. This happened just 10% of the time (18 out of 174) a player with at least a bye 13 - 2.
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